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Years of growth fuelled by access to cheap funding by virtue of low interest rates in the developed world and China’s robust appetite for commodities are seen ending, leading economists at the Bank of International Settlements to warn of negative spillovers as borrowing costs rise.


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    “We will see a lot of headlines about [emerging market export growth] picking up in the first half of 2017,” says Bhanu Baweja, head of EM cross asset strategy at UBS, who believes EM exports will show year-on-year growth of between 8 and 13 per cent in dollar terms in the first quarter of this year, “a complete postcode away” from the negative numbers currently being reported.

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